Yesterday I saw a rocket launch. It truly was awe inspiring. It also made me certain that we’ve solved access to space. This got me thinking about what comes next, and I was drawn to the history of settling new frontiers and how those came to be. What lessons can we glean from the past? How can it inform where and how we invest in new frontiers over the next decade?
Colonization—whether it’s marching off to new continents or hurtling into space—always boils down to three steps: access, communication, and trade. First, you figure out how to get there. Then, you make sure everyone can stay in touch. Finally, you open the door to commerce. It’s the same pattern, every time.
Europeans weren’t planting colonies in America until they had reliable ships and landing spots. Then came letters, courier services, and telegraph lines to keep people and governments in sync. Only after that did the real money flow through big trade routes. Fast-forward to the 21st century, and that same formula—access, communication, trade—is playing out in space. Rockets replace ships, satellites replace telegraphs, and new pharmaceuticals or semiconductors might be the thing that drives tomorrow’s markets.
So who gains from this? In the early days, it’s whoever pays for and executes that first step—financiers, kings, entrepreneur or VCs. Next, once communication infrastructure takes off, telecom outfits and network builders reap huge profits, setting the stage for the world of commerce to follow. By the time trade routes are humming, everyone from transport operators to technology providers gets in on the action. But there’s a catch: value doesn’t land evenly. The ones who own the ships, satellites, or rocket fleets often dictate who else gets a piece of the pie, and on what terms.
No matter how technology changes, you can’t skip a step. You can’t run a thriving trade if nobody can get there in the first place. And you can’t maintain a colony if it’s cut off from the rest of the world. That’s why every successful expansion follows these three arcs. The tools evolve, but the recipe for growth—and the question of who ultimately profits—stays the same.